Global air freight rates in June were 33% higher year-on-year, with volumes up 9%, driven by AI infrastructure and semiconductor demand, according to Flexport. Capacity constraints from Middle Eastern carriers, operating at about 70% of pre-conflict levels, and elevated jet fuel prices continue to support the market. However, the Asia-Europe market has softened since late June, with Hong Kong export tonnage falling 12% in the first week of July, partly due to the EU's removal of de minimis for low-value imports.
Flexport expects China and Hong Kong volumes to remain stable through July and August, while Southeast Asia and Taiwan should see continued strong demand from AI hardware and technology products. However, renewed Middle East disruption or further ocean-to-air modal shift could bring forward the traditional peak season to September, putting upward pressure on rates.
Xeneta has dramatically revised its 2026 outlook, now expecting air freight rates to rise 5%-15% instead of falling 5%-10%, citing the supply shock from Middle East conflict. The conflict removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight in late February, restricting first-half supply growth to just 1% while demand increased 4%. Spot rates climbed around 40% in May before stabilizing, and combined spot and contract rates rose 17% year-on-year in the first half.
Both Xeneta and Freightos identify AI-related cargo as the key growth driver. Global semiconductor sales surged 106% year-on-year in April, making the transpacific the strongest air cargo corridor, while China's low-value e-commerce exports dropped 7% in May. Cathay Pacific and Cargolux have postponed resumption of services to the Middle East, further tightening capacity. As Xeneta's chief airfreight officer noted, "Demand keeps defying gravity. Spot rates are plateauing, but they are not falling."